Daily Plots
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Eau Claire
Important dates (purple dashed lines):
- May 14: First day after Stay-at-Home order reversed by state Supreme Court
- May 25: Memorial Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
- July 4: Independence Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
(green dashed lines):
- March 25: Stay-at-Home order put in place
- July 20: Large national stores putting mask mandates in place
- Aug 1: WI mask mandate in effect
Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.
Wisconsin
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
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Not yet coded
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Numeric Summaries
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Eau Claire
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 30 2020 | 462 | 13427 | 3 |
| July 31 2020 | 474 | 13509 | 3 |
| August 01 2020 | 485 | 13728 | 3 |
| August 02 2020 | 503 | 13731 | 3 |
| August 03 2020 | 507 | 13833 | 3 |
| August 04 2020 | 517 | 14025 | 3 |
| August 05 2020 | 531 | 14107 | 4 |
Wisconsin
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | Hospitalization Yes | Hospitalization Unknown | Icu Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30 2020 | 52108 | 867602 | 919 | 4590 | 17757 | 893 |
| July 31 2020 | 52940 | 882149 | 934 | 4637 | 17957 | 900 |
| August 01 2020 | 54002 | 895945 | 947 | 4681 | 18358 | 904 |
| August 02 2020 | 54924 | 904666 | 948 | 4717 | 18837 | 910 |
| August 03 2020 | 55328 | 911435 | 949 | 4732 | 19010 | 910 |
| August 04 2020 | 56056 | 928845 | 961 | 4783 | 19084 | 916 |
| August 05 2020 | 56940 | 944984 | 970 | 4826 | 19301 | 919 |
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Wisconsin
Other information:
Cumulative Plots
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Active
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. A reasonable approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 14-16 days. We will go with this standard, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.
References
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Data Sources
Reliable Updated Visuals
- Johns Hopkins dashboard (world, national, and county levels)
- National
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
- Wisconsin DHS website, with interactive graphs; subsettable by county
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
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Visual and code references for selected plots
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
- Github repository by coolbaby0208
- Covid Act Now https://covidactnow.org/?s=58173
- A regional breakdown of the United States COVID-19 curve https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/heglc5/oc_a_regional_breakdown_of_the_united_states/
- Minnesota updates from Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesota/comments/h9j6pj/covid19_update_up_222_230_by_mdh_active_2780/ and https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesota/comments/hfovhg/625_update_34123_positives_360_1406_deaths_9/
- Wisconsin updates (from Redditor unknown-and-alone)
- Wisconsin updates
- https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/hjwthw/oc_countylevel_covid19_case_growth_animation_in/
- https://www.cpp.edu/~clange/covid19/Covid19ReportCaliforniaComp.html
Scientific References for Common Questions
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
- Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis
- Background for modelling: A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic
- To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic
- Face Masks Considerably Reduce COVID-19 Cases in Germany: A Synthetic Control Method Approach
A couple more in the works:
- Face mask wearing rate predicts country's COVID-19 death rates
- Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks (Update June 15, 2020)
- Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection for prevention of COVID-19
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Modeling
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1189"