Daily Plots

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Eau Claire

Important dates (purple dashed lines):

  • May 14: First day after Stay-at-Home order reversed by state Supreme Court
  • May 25: Memorial Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)
  • July 4: Independence Day (typical celebrations and/or vacations)

(green dashed lines):

  • March 25: Stay-at-Home order put in place
  • July 20: Large national stores putting mask mandates in place
  • Aug 1: WI mask mandate in effect

Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.

Wisconsin

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

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Numeric Summaries

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Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS
July 30 2020 462 13427 3
July 31 2020 474 13509 3
August 01 2020 485 13728 3
August 02 2020 503 13731 3
August 03 2020 507 13833 3
August 04 2020 517 14025 3
August 05 2020 531 14107 4

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE DEATHS Hospitalization Yes Hospitalization Unknown Icu Yes
July 30 2020 52108 867602 919 4590 17757 893
July 31 2020 52940 882149 934 4637 17957 900
August 01 2020 54002 895945 947 4681 18358 904
August 02 2020 54924 904666 948 4717 18837 910
August 03 2020 55328 911435 949 4732 19010 910
August 04 2020 56056 928845 961 4783 19084 916
August 05 2020 56940 944984 970 4826 19301 919

Cumulative Plots

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Active

Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. A reasonable approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 14-16 days. We will go with this standard, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1189"