Important dates (purple dashed lines):
(green dashed lines):
Note: due to lag time between exposure and final positive test, effects of changes are typically observed about two weeks after event.
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Not yet coded
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 30 2020 | 462 | 13427 | 3 |
| July 31 2020 | 474 | 13509 | 3 |
| August 01 2020 | 485 | 13728 | 3 |
| August 02 2020 | 503 | 13731 | 3 |
| August 03 2020 | 507 | 13833 | 3 |
| August 04 2020 | 517 | 14025 | 3 |
| August 05 2020 | 531 | 14107 | 4 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | DEATHS | Hospitalization Yes | Hospitalization Unknown | Icu Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 30 2020 | 52108 | 867602 | 919 | 4590 | 17757 | 893 |
| July 31 2020 | 52940 | 882149 | 934 | 4637 | 17957 | 900 |
| August 01 2020 | 54002 | 895945 | 947 | 4681 | 18358 | 904 |
| August 02 2020 | 54924 | 904666 | 948 | 4717 | 18837 | 910 |
| August 03 2020 | 55328 | 911435 | 949 | 4732 | 19010 | 910 |
| August 04 2020 | 56056 | 928845 | 961 | 4783 | 19084 | 916 |
| August 05 2020 | 56940 | 944984 | 970 | 4826 | 19301 | 919 |
Other information:
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with rare cases being long-term / on-going. A reasonable approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 14-16 days. We will go with this standard, and adjust as more precise information becomes available.
https://topic.newsbreak.com/covid-19.html?zip=19934&s=dmg_local_briefing.web2
Re-opening Trends: that is, why didn't the first wave end?
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 20 days, are approximately 9.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-08-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1189"